Junior Paddler Development Analysis 2017
A) Individual progress:
At the moment figures are only available for Junior Kayak paddlers. Seniors may/will follow, but they are less significant in overall terms. While most high-achieving Juniors also paddle in Canadian classes, it does not seem to make any difference to their overall progress.
There are 5 tables covering the Junior Kayak starters in each Division: boys in the left-hand columns, girls in the right-hand columns. These are divided into:
(a) Section listing names and clubs of all Junior kayak paddlers who started the year in that division and paddled 9 or more races (7 or more in Prem). 1, 2 or 3 asterisks by the name denote how many Kayak promotions they achieved.
(b) Section listing names and clubs of all Junior kayak paddlers who started the year in that division and paddled 4 - 8 races (4 - 6 in Prem)(1, 2 or 3 asterisks by the name denote how many Kayak promotions they achieved).
(c) Section listing numbers of Junior kayak paddlers who started the year in that division and paddled 3 races or fewer.
Numbers of races are significant because, to a high level of statistical reliability, those who paddle 9+ races are very likely to remain in the sport and progress. Those who paddle 4 – 8 races may stay in the sport, and may progress – but most do not. Those who paddle 3 races or less, whether or not they are promoted, predominantly do not come back the next year – or at least only to their own club’s slalom.
One caveat about Div 4 starters: some clubs start recruiting in early summer, so that their new intake only paddle their first races in September (HPP CC non-TID’s) or even October (Stafford & Stone) so their figures are not representative. However I do keep a record of that, and ‘put the record straight’ the following year.
B) The role of Clubs
The remaining three documents show all the paddlers who paddled for particular clubs during 2017 (and also show how few Independent Juniors there are …)
The Overall list shows all the paddlers who paddled for each club, colour-coded:
Green: 9+ races
Red: 4-8 races
Black, italicised: 3 or fewer races
The clubs are then put together with the others in their Region – or Wales, or Scotland – to show how many paddled in each region and in each of the Home Countries.
The tables showing ‘England 1st XI’, ‘England 2nd XI’, ‘England 3rd XI’ are there to emphasise how the great majority of Junior Slalom paddlers paddle for a very small number of Clubs. The ‘Core + Occasional’ and ‘Core’ tables are there to make this predominance clearer.